What has been made abundantly clear after 10 weeks of protests is that the Syrian regime is susceptible to foreign pressure, as seen by the reaction to USA and, especially EU, sanctions. In the latest move, from a regime under increasing pressure from protesters energized by the apparent torture and gruesome death of Hamza al-Khatib a 13-year old boy (here and here), the regime has made a U-turn after some three years of stone-walling IAEA.
Last weeks, as of yet, confidential (but leaked) IAEA-report assessed that the Syrian building bombed and destroyed by Israel in 2007 was very likely a nuclear reactor built with aid from North Korea with the aim of producing plutonium. USA and its allies have ratchet up the pressure on Syria with a USA-drafted resolution that, if passed by the IAEA-board during at next meeting in Vienna of 6-10 June, would report Syria to the UNSCR for violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. With this on the table Syria suddenly made a U-turn after three years of stonewalling, and pledged full cooperation with the IAEA according to a (yes, leaked) note from the IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano.
The fact that Syria now has made this U-turn and pledged cooperation will, according to USA, not in any way change the fact that Syria has violated the NPT. If this is the case will be decided by the 35-member states part of the current board of the IAEA. According to article 37 of the rules and procedures of the board of governors a simple majority is needed to make such a decision.
I would argue that 17 of the 35 member states – Australia, Belgium, Chile, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Republic of Korea, Netherlands, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America – would be certain to vote for a resolution referring Syria to UNSCR. On the fence and likely to vote for a resolution are Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Cameroon, India and Niger. Member states is likely to vote against such a resolution would be China, Russian Federation, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. On the fence and likely to be persuaded to vote against are Jordan, Azerbajian, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, South Africa and Ukraine.